Brexit. Its a disaster but we have to roll up our sleeves now! After an own goal, you have to try to score again!
We’ve left the EU (or have we?), so lots of things willl happen now. Love him or not, Cameron has stepped down and will hand over to a new pair of hands. He nearly cried at the end! There will probably be a vote of “no confidence” organised in the HOP organised by Labour.( certainly! ) with a 14 seat majority, the next PM will have one hell of a job. Its a bigger shambles now than after Mr Brown( God I hope I’m wrong). Everything looked to be going so well, unemployment coming down after a big recession, austerity winding down…. It’s 1979 all over again.
BOE just pumped 250 BN into the economy in the last HOUR (after ECB pumping 800 BN euros per month every month for the last year into european economies= 1 trillion!)
The HOP will probably vote to ask the PM not to enact article 50 of the TOL. But he’s duty bound to do so. However it will be the NEXT PM ( a she perhaps!) who does all this , in 2017 after the election of a new leader for the Conservatives. So nothing really changes till 2017
Then Either A) the HOP has a vote on article 50 and it goes to the Lords and back again (3 years!). An online petiton to have a second referendum is currently underway and should this reach 100k people the HOP are duty bound to discuss this and currently 58k people are signed up, 1000 per hour. So this looks probable, but who knows.
B) The new PM decides its his/her perogative as outlined in the TOL and enacts article 50 and we negotiate our way out.( or we don’t, and its a big big mess)
C) What usually happens in Europe: we vote again till we get the “Right result for Europe” whatever than means ( stay is what Europe wants, or does it?) à la Ireland!
Or D none of the above, and we end up with WTO tarifs emposed and we go from there.( and the Best of British Luck)
BOE slash rates by 0.5 % now and 0.25% after, taking us to negative interest rates and helicopter money
A recession is almost certain now. And not just for the UK, but for Europe too.
Mid term Scotland and NI leave, we lose our seat on the security council of the UN, we leave (or are asked to leave) NATO, if Labour win the vote of no confidence then Jeremy Corbyn will be the next PM (or there will be a GE anyway, I’m not sure he’ll win that, but who knows) should he win Trident goes, and we definately leave the EU as he’s anti EU, if Boris or Gove win then goodbye NHS and free education, and we leave the EU too. So damned if you do, damned if you dont.
Other countries will look and see, perhaps others will leave. We’ll join with Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Iceland , perhaps the Netherlands and Finland /some others to make some kind of Northern European Market Zone, as before the EU. Or be like Norway, half in and half out. We go from 6th biggest economy to the 16th to the 60th. in two decades.
Europe won’t be very friendly to us for a while. France (well some french politicians) will sharpen their knives, and the other 27 countries will probably put the boot in. We have to persuade 20 of the 28 of our trade and currency, tax and other ideas within 2 years. We we’ll never be let back in, even if we are eating potatoes and starving, nor will we be allowed to emmigrate from the UK into the EU. Ex pats will be forced back to their countries of origin. Unless they take the nationality of the country they live in.
Europe was an attempt to get rid of nationalism but in the end “the bloke down the pub” won. Ironic that Boris Johnson, whose hero is Churchill, Bankrupts the country just as Churchill did with gold standard!
Marine Le Pen will win the Presidency and Donald Trump in the USA. Extremes from left and right will come to pass in Europe.
Currencies will crash, as in the 1920 into a maelstrom of bitterness, poverty, unemployement and insecurity, which extremes will promise to resolve as in the 1930’s and all this leads inevitably to war. The Euro is history, perhaps the pound will hang on…. we’ll probably either go back to old currencies or stricter fiscal and financial intergration…..
Its the end of the UK, the flag will change, the end of the EU, their flag will change. Europe wasn’t perfect and really needed urgent change, which will now have to come.( how ironic!) We’ll see European taxes and laws come into place, and a closer unification, or completely the opposite, a dissolution of Europe. The opportunity for others to leave will be taken away, and Europe will become a much more central (and even less democratic) place, or they’ll all decide it ‘s the end of the party and to go home and sleep it off.
Putin will be grinning from ear to ear and will then ensure those borders Stalin enjoyed are re established all the way to Poland. OR BERLIN. Trump likes Putin, so don’t expect any favours from the USA. Or the EU.
France will be panicking now! If the EU breaks up, they’ll almost certainly have to default and they won’t be the only country in the ex EU zone to do so, ( everyone except Germany is in the mess) and the euro will be ” a broken dream”.
Prepare for war. We seriousy discussed going to New Zealand. If Le Pen Wins, We leave France. No way can we stay.
Of course, perhaps this is the doom scenario and I need to “think positive”
I remember my parent’s generation, the “Colonels from Tonbridge Wells” muttering into their moustaches at dinner parties thirty years ago in my parents living room about giving up our colonies, how those “backwards heathen places” would never make it by themselves, but they (in the main ) did. Look at India!.(Well and Zimbabwe too, not so good there…)At the time, as a radical 15 year old, I thought “what nonsense!” So I’ve shaved the moustache, and put down the sherry, hung up the baton and come back from parade.
We’ll continue, as we always have. But it will be a different place when we go back to visit (IF we go back) or If we are FORCED back. Any way, ironic to find our country in the same position as the colonies all those years ago.
We’ll probably end up as Belgium , a small country with no influence and who no one cares about. English as a language starts its decline here, and the world now becomes a different place. Europe has lost its influence, and we look to Asia to carry on.(with south america/africa). That’s been the case for 20 years though. We just didn’t get it!
Its the End! Its the beginning.